Recent Trends in Indian Population Growth Slowing Growth Rate The population growth rate is gradually declining. According to a report from SBI Research, the average annual exponential growth rate has dropped from about 2.20% in 1971 to ~1.00% in 2024. ThePrint +2 The Economic Times +2 The total population is estimated to be in the range of 138‑142 crore (1.38‑1.42 billion) by 2024. The Economic Times +1 Age Structure Shifts The share of working‑age population (15‑59 or 15‑64 years) is increasing. In 2021 it was about 60.7%; projected to reach ~64.4% in the upcoming census, and further ~65.2% by 2031. Business Insider India +1 The proportion of children aged 0‑14 years is declining: from ~ 30.9% in 2011 to about 24.3% in 2024. Business Insider India The elderly share (60+ or 65+) is gradually rising. In 2024, it is projected at ~10.7%, rising to 13.1% by 2031. The Economic Times +2 Business Insider India +2 Median age is increasing: India remains relatively “young” compared to many countries, but median age has been rising (e.g. from ~24 years in 2021 to about 28‑29 in 2023‑24 per some estimates) reflecting the changing age composition. The Economic Times +1 Regional Disparities Northern states (e.g., Uttar Pradesh, Bihar) continue to contribute significantly to population growth, while many southern states have seen slower growth. The Economic Times +2 The Economic Times +2 Differences in ageing: States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu have much higher proportion of elderly; others are younger. The Times of India +1 Urbanisation and Dependency Ratios Urban share is increasing: In the 2011 census, urban population was ~31.1%. For 2024, estimates suggest urban share will increase to 35‑37%. Business Insider India Dependency ratio (children + elderly per working‑age population) is expected to reach its lowest point in India by ~2030, after which it will start to increase as ageing accelerates. EY +1 Changing Characteristics: Age Structure & Occupational Distribution Age Structure Implications Demographic Dividend: With a rising share of working‑age people and declining child dependency, India is in a window where it could potentially harness a demographic dividend—if employment, health, education infrastructure etc. keep pace. EY +1 Ageing to Come: Though currently young, the increasing share of elderly suggests pressures in future in terms of pensions, healthcare, social support. Regions with advanced ageing (southern states, Punjab, Himachal etc.) may face greater challenges sooner. The Times of India +1 Occupational Distribution Changes Agriculture Still Dominant in Employment Despite economic growth and structural transformation goals, agriculture remains the sector that employs the largest share of the Indian workforce. Recent data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2023‑24 shows agriculture’s share rising again after a period of decline. In 2023‑24, about 46.1% of workers are employed in agriculture. GSpedia +1 Industry & Services Share Declining or Stagnating The share of employment in manufacturing has declined slightly: from ~12.1‑12.6% in earlier years to ~11.4% in 2023‑24. Services likewise have a dip: from ~31.1% to ~29.7%. Construction, trade, hospitality etc. have some share growth, but many are informal or low‑productivity. GSpedia +2 The Indian Express +2 Increase in Self‑employment and Informal Work Self‑employment has been growing, especially in agriculture. Many workers are own account workers or unpaid family helpers. The share of those in regular wage/salary positions remains low. counterview.net +2 The Indian Express +2 Female Labour Force Participation on the Rise There has been a significant increase in female labour force participation. For example, female participation among ages 15‑59 rose from ~23.3% in 2017‑18 to ~41.7% in 2023‑24. Rural areas especially show increased female participation in agriculture; in urban areas, more in services etc., though challenges of informality, low wages, etc. remain. GSpedia +1 Analysis: Implications & Challenges The declining birth rates and increasing elderly share mean India needs to prepare for higher health, pension, social security burdens. The demographic dividend opportunity is real but not automatic. To reap its benefits, India must generate enough productive employment, particularly in industry and formal services; improve education, skill development; invest in infrastructure. The recent trend of more people in agriculture (contrary to expected decline) may signal underperforming manufacturing and non‑farm rural sectors. Many moving to agriculture may be due to lack of non‑farm jobs or fallback after job losses (e.g. during COVID). This reflects “structural retrogression” where people move into low productivity work. counterview.net Informality, underemployment, and weak quality of employment remain big issues: even as employment numbers rise, many are without regular contracts, social security, and in low wage sectors. Gender disparity: although female labour force participation is rising, women still face barriers – when they work, more often in informal agriculture, family enterprises etc., with less job security and lower earnings. Examples to Illustrate States like Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are ageing faster – proportion of 60+ population is rising, fertility below replacement level. The Times of India In contrast, states like UP and Bihar still contribute heavily to population growth, have younger populations, lower median ages. The Economic Times +2 The Economic Times +2 The PLFS data showing agriculture’s share going up from ~42.5% in 2018‑19 to ~46.1% in 2023‑24 highlights that many new jobs are either being created in agriculture or people are returning to agriculture (or not able to find jobs in other sectors). GSpedia +2 The Indian Express +2 Conclusion In sum, India’s population growth is decelerating while the working‑age share is increasing, and child dependency is falling. Ageing is beginning to rise, especially in certain states. Occupationally, while there has been some shift toward non‑farm sectors over earlier decades, recent data suggests agriculture remains dominant, industry is not growing in employment share as much as desired, and the services sector’s share has plateaued or dipped slightly. To ensure that India benefi­ts from its demographic changes, policies must focus on creating formal, productive jobs; improving the quality of employment; increasing female workforce participation meaningfully; and investing in health, education, and geriatric support systems.

Demographic Problems in Northeast India: An Examination of Poverty, Immigration, and Outmigration

Northeast India, comprising eight states—Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura—is a region of immense cultural and ethnic diversity. Despite its strategic location and natural resource wealth, the region faces unique demographic challenges that hinder socio-economic development. Among the most pressing are poverty, immigration, and outmigration. These issues are deeply intertwined with the region’s geography, historical context, ethnic composition, and political dynamics.

1. Poverty

Extent and Causes:

• The Northeast has a significantly high proportion of people living below the poverty line, especially in rural and tribal areas.

• Factors contributing to poverty include:

• Limited industrialization and lack of large-scale employment opportunities.
• Poor connectivity and inadequate infrastructure, due to hilly terrain and underinvestment.
• Low agricultural productivity, largely due to traditional methods like jhum (shifting cultivation), lack of irrigation, and soil erosion.
• Insurgency and ethnic conflicts, which have discouraged private investment and disrupted livelihoods.

Impacts:

• High poverty rates have led to poor health, low educational attainment, and malnutrition.
• It also contributes to increased vulnerability to human trafficking, child labor, and substance abuse.

2. Immigration

Nature of the Problem:

• Illegal immigration, particularly from Bangladesh, has been a longstanding issue, especially in Assam, Tripura, and parts of Meghalaya.
• Migrants often settle in border areas or urban slums and compete for limited resources like land, jobs, and political representation.

Consequences:

• Demographic imbalance: Changes in ethnic composition have caused tensions between indigenous communities and migrant populations.
• Land alienation: Indigenous groups often lose land and livelihoods to more aggressive, economically active migrants.
• Ethnic conflict: Immigration has been a key trigger in riots, insurgencies, and demands for autonomy (e.g., the Assam Agitation of 1979–85).
• Environmental degradation: Unplanned settlements in ecologically sensitive areas have led to deforestation and pressure on natural resources.

3. Outmigration

Trends:

• The Northeast experiences significant outmigration of youth and skilled labor to metro cities like Delhi, Bengaluru, and Mumbai.

• Push factors include:

• Lack of higher education institutions and quality jobs.
• Perceptions of better opportunities and lifestyles elsewhere.

• Pull factors include:

• Employment in the hospitality, security, BPO, and retail sectors in urban India.

Consequences:

• Brain drain: Loss of educated and skilled youth slows local development.
• Social fragmentation: Families and communities are broken up, affecting social cohesion.
• Cultural dilution: Migrants often face racial discrimination and struggle to maintain their cultural identity in other parts of India.

Suggested Measures

Addressing these demographic problems requires context-specific, inclusive, and multi-dimensional strategies that consider the region’s socio-cultural diversity and geo-political sensitivity.

1. Poverty Alleviation

• Boost infrastructure development: Improve road, rail, telecom, and energy connectivity under programs like Act East Policy and North East Special Infrastructure Development Scheme (NESIDS).
• Promote agri-based industries: Encourage organic farming, food processing, and bamboo-based industries through subsidies and training.
• Skill development: Launch region-specific training programs for youth in sectors like tourism, crafts, renewable energy, and IT.

2. Managing Immigration

• Strengthen border management: Complete fencing and surveillance along international borders, especially in Assam and Tripura.
• Implement NRC and ILP fairly: Use tools like the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and Inner Line Permit (ILP) with transparency to protect indigenous rights while respecting humanitarian concerns.
• Promote social harmony: Encourage community dialogue and integration programs to reduce ethnic tensions.

3. Curbing Outmigration

• Create local employment: Establish industrial hubs, eco-tourism projects, and startups to provide opportunities at home.
• Improve higher education: Set up universities, technical institutes, and scholarships tailored to local needs.
• Empower youth and women: Through entrepreneurship schemes, vocational training, and digital inclusion.

Conclusion

Northeast India's demographic problems—poverty, immigration, and outmigration—are complex and rooted in its historical marginalization and cultural uniqueness. Solutions must be inclusive, participatory, and sustainable, with a focus on local empowerment, security, and economic integration. Recognizing and respecting the region’s ethnic diversity and autonomy while ensuring equitable development is key to unlocking the full potential of this vital part of India.

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