The "New Idea Mortality Curve" is a concept often referenced in innovation and entrepreneurship circles. It describes the pattern of how new ideas or innovations tend to progress over time. The curve illustrates the likelihood that a new idea will fail or be abandoned at various stages of its development. Here's how it typically works:
1. Conception: At the beginning of the curve, there's a surge of excitement and enthusiasm around a new idea. This is when the idea is conceived, and there's often a lot of optimism about its potential.
2. Initial Testing/Exploration: As the idea moves forward, it undergoes initial testing or exploration. This might involve market research, prototyping, or experimentation to validate the concept. At this stage, some ideas may show promise, while others may prove to be unfeasible or unviable.
3. Trough of Disillusionment: Many ideas hit a point where they encounter challenges or setbacks. This stage is often referred to as the "trough of disillusionment" or the "valley of death." It's where initial enthusiasm gives way to skepticism or doubt, as the practical difficulties of implementing the idea become apparent.
4. Pivot or Persistence: Some ideas may pivot, meaning they undergo significant changes in response to feedback or new information. Others may persist despite challenges, as innovators refine their approach or find new applications for the idea.
5. Growth and Success: For ideas that survive the trough of disillusionment, there's the potential for growth and success. This might involve gaining traction in the market, securing investment or funding, or achieving other key milestones.
6. Plateau or Decline: Even successful ideas may eventually reach a plateau or decline, as they face competition, changing market conditions, or other factors that limit their growth potential.
Understanding the New Idea Mortality Curve can help innovators and entrepreneurs anticipate challenges and make more informed decisions about how to develop and navigate their ideas. It underscores the importance of resilience, adaptability, and persistence in the face of adversity.
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